Monday, August 22, 2005

East Bay job market recovering

Posted on Sat, Aug. 20, 2005

East Bay job market recovering

By George Avalos
CONTRA COSTA TIMES


The East Bay job market is in its best shape in years, according to a state report released Friday, and the Bay Area is not far behind.

And the surge in the local economy is poised to persist. The employment gains in the region are strong enough -- and widespread enough -- that analysts believe the job market will power ahead for the rest of 2005.

Just about every industry in the East Bay and Bay Area is starting to grow. Private education, construction, finance and insurance, health care, transportation and telecommunications showed the strongest gains over the past year, the Employment Development Department's monthly survey showed.

Even the battered manufacturing sector, helped by gains in computers and electronics manufacturing, has added jobs over the past 12 months. The primary areas of weakness emerged in software, utilities and the government sector.

"I'm very encouraged by this latest report," said Christopher Thornberg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

During the past 12 months, the East Bay enjoyed its greatest job growth since the dot-com meltdown. "These are good numbers for the East Bay," said Thornberg. "The strength is showing up in a lot of sectors, a lot of important sectors."

The same trends materialized in the South Bay and the Bay Area.

"The Bay Area is on a recovery path," Thornberg said.

Over the past year, the East Bay has added 15,900 jobs, the South Bay is up 700 jobs and the Bay Area has gained 26,600 jobs, the EDD's report for July showed.

"This is not a flash-in-the-pan expansion," said Scott Anderson, an economist with San Francisco-based Wells Fargo. "The expansion in the East Bay is getting more and more broadly based."

The East Bay outpaced California and every other region of the Bay Area in job growth. Over the year, the East Bay posted a 1.6 percent gain in jobs, while California had a 1.3 percent increase. Bay Area jobs increased by 0.8 percent over the year.

Yet California is also looking strong. The Golden State added nearly 30,000 jobs in July and almost 190,000 jobs over the past 12 months. The state jobless rate improved to 5.1 percent in July from 5.4 percent in June.

One area of worry: housing-related jobs. By many measures and according to a number of prognosticators, the housing boom in the Bay Area and California is bound to stumble or at least cool. If that happens, the jobs that depend on housing could fade.

About 26 percent of the job growth during the last 12 months came from construction, although many of the construction gains came from outside of residential development.

"The housing market is going to cause big problems," Thornberg said. "But if we get enough momentum in other parts of the economy, the cooling housing market will be offset by gains elsewhere."

Because nine out of the 10 major private-sector industries are showing solid gains in the East Bay, analysts believe the region can weather a housing slump.

Echoing the state's data, employment leaders reported success in placing workers. Some of the improvement has appeared in surprising areas, said Steve Pogorzelski, president of Monster Worldwide Inc.'s North American operations.

"We are seeing increases in demand for computers and mathematical jobs," Pogorzelski said. "We have found good strength in all engineering occupations, in software developers and I.T. professionals."

Yet for many, success in the job market remains elusive. Lucy Williams of Hercules has strong academic credentials, yet is struggling to find work in education.

"I believe next year there will be more opportunities in academia," Williams said. Williams is optimistic because educational requirements are becoming more rigorous.

One of the most hopeful trends is a growing number of temporary workers are finding full-time jobs, said Ralph Henderson, a San Ramon-based senior vice president with Spherion Corp., a staffing services firm. Spherion's local revenue from permanent hires has quadrupled from last year.

"Our permanent placements have jumped," Henderson said. "Real jobs are being created."


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George Avalos covers the economy, financial markets and banks. Reach him at 925-977-8477 or gavalos@cctimes.com

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